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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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The failure to secure passage of the bill is a stinging defeat for both crypto-connected prediction operators and the CFTC, which has fully embraced the advance of digital assets under Chairman Michael Selig. Interest groups and political action committees had spent countless hours and millions of dollars lobbying for the legislation.
In statements, op-eds and media interviews since his appointment, Selig had pounded the table for a federal crypto framework. As the IGA’s Bean alluded to, the Clarity Act would have given the agency a number of new duties and authorities related to the new assets at a time when the commission’s existing workload has been cause for concern. There are typically five sitting CFTC commissioners at any given time, but Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner with no other nominations submitted.
Selig recently hosted a meeting of the CFTC’s so-called Innovation Advisory Committee, which featured extensive discussion about crypto from leading CEOs. The committee’s charter says members pledge to “provide advice and recommendations” on several topics, including crypto assets and blockchain technology.
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Collaboration was a key focus of the inaugural Africa Safer Gambling Week, which the AiA hosted last week.
Kesitilwe told iGB an important theme of the event was fostering year-round collaboration and turning conversations on safer gambling into practical measures.
“The initiative demonstrates that cooperation does not have to remain at the level of conference and policy discussion,” he said.
