Rujak Bonanza

What is Rujak Bonanza?

“Publicly traded valuations are a reflection of the current interest rate environment,” Chad Beynon, lead gaming analyst for Macquarie, told iGB. “Whether it’s a long-term financial model on a growth company, you’re going to discount that back at a higher rate, or if it’s just a standard four-wall business, the cash flows in a higher interest rate environment are worth less.”

According to data from Yahoo Finance, the resort and casino sector is -41% over the last five years, and the overall gambling sector, which includes major sportsbooks and online operators, is +7%; the benchmark S&P 500 index, by comparison, is +71% during that span.

Two blockbuster developments in the casino space earlier this year seemed to indicate an increasingly bullish bet on the sector, including Fertitta Entertainment’s acquisition of Caesars Entertainment in May. The other is a subsequent takeover offer of MGM Resorts from its largest shareholder, Barry Diller’s People Inc. But a negative shift in market conditions could affect both deals.

How to play Rujak Bonanza

Are you listening, Oh you gaming industry execs? If you’re a CEO reading this, or a CFO, and you’re struggling with shut down casinos and mounting debt, I’m talking to you. You have only a few months at most to protect your companies from a hyperinflationary nuclear bomb that is about to go off and destroy everything in its path. The fuse is being lit as I write this. I will now describe the fuse.

About 18 months ago I wrote this weird, esoteric, wacky article. I made the case that once U.S. dollar interest rates went negative, all commodities would warp into backwardation. Meaning, the spot prices for all commodities would become more expensive than their futures price. This is now happening. Almost all commodities are now in persistent backwardation. All grains, sugar, lumber, and cotton; energy including natural gas and both Brent and WTI crude oil; base metals including copper, tin, and iron ore. They are all in backwardation now, and some have been that way for months now. The CRB commodities index is now climbing at its fastest pace ever, doubling since March.

And this is with various forms of lockdowns persisting in Europe and the U.S., which should mute industrial demand for commodities. Paper currencies are dying. That’s what’s happening, pure and simple. And they are about to get their death blow.

What is Rujak Bonanza?

The problem with time is that it always changes. There is never a way to stop the clock, no matter how much we wish it could happen. Ultimately, that means we all have to face new situations and challenges and prepare to be taken on new paths. However, each of those new paths is a chance to learn and grow, embracing all of the experience and knowledge that has been accumulated to forge a better future. It may be a little unnerving, not knowing which path to take and what the future may hold, but it has to be completely accepted for what it is – an opportunity that we have the ability to explore and nurture. 

That’s where I am now, having accepted the fact that the CalvinAyre and CoinGeek chapters of my life are coming to a close. For the past three years, I have been part of a unique and incredible group that has worked tirelessly to spread the word on the gaming and cryptocurrency industries that we felt would provide a positive impact for our readers. I, like everyone else, have always endeavored to be consistent and factual with the words I put on virtual paper, even though I know, based on some of the emails I have received, that I have also ruffled a few feathers. At the end of the day, though, I can rest easy in the knowledge that I was always transparent and factual. 

I would be lying if I said it’s going to be easy to accept this transition and to refocus my efforts elsewhere. However, I am eternally grateful for having been given this excellent opportunity and have enjoyed every aspect of being involved in the Calvin Ayre organization. What is coming next may still not be defined, but that’s what is going to make the next chapter exciting; it can bring essentially anything and everything. What I know, regardless of what happens next, is that I will continue to be who I am and will continue to provide the same level of professionalism and integrity that have brought me this far, and which are paramount for everyone involved with Calvin Ayre. I thank everyone at the organization for their undeniable commitment to excellence and thank all of our supporters and readers for allowing us to share with them our experiences and knowledge.