Golden Grimoire

About Golden Grimoire

Merkur has agreed to pay an effective price of €6.19 per SFC share for the stake, representing a substantial premium over recent market valuations. 

The premium reflects both the control premium paid to the sellers and Merkur’s valuation for majority ownership.

As Merkur’s acquisition of Casigrangi would grant indirect control over SFC, French regulations require Merkur to launch a simplified mandatory tender offer for the remaining SFC shares it does not already hold. 

What is Golden Grimoire?

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

About Golden Grimoire

Spillemyndigheden said it contributed actively to this work and sat on FATF’s gaming sector working group. The regulator confirmed that many of the indicators in the report carry relevance for operators licensed in Denmark.

FATF’s warning on illegal and offshore gambling will resonate in Denmark. Last year, Spillemyndigheden secured a court order to block 178 unlicensed gambling sites, the largest such action in the regulator’s history. 

The case highlighted how illegal operators disguise their presence through multiple site variations, a tactic the FATF report also flags as a red flag indicator.