About this app
About Dr Toonz
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
About Dr Toonz
Prosecutors allege that five suspects had operated internet-based gambling services without the required German licences from at least July 2021. The volume of bets placed on these platforms reportedly exceeded €5.8 billion between mid-2021 and the end of 2023.
In addition to illegal gambling, investigators suspect extensive tax evasion, with a projected tax shortfall of about €77.6 million for 2024.
The DSWV, representing licensed sports-betting operators, broadly welcomed the law enforcement action as a necessary response to the illegal market’s growth and associated risks.
About Dr Toonz
Its noisy and crowded parlours, he notes, do little to attract Japan’s critical demographic of women aged 40 and over. They “do not find pachi facilities comfortable or appealing”.
Given that women account for nearly 60% of gaming customers in the US, Klebanow argues that Japan’s IRs should instead offer environments where this demographic feels “safe and comfortable”. The key lesson from pachinko, he concludes, is therefore “not to create gaming environments that mimic them”.
Ultimately Leckert remains positive on Japan’s IR opportunity. “Stringent regulation really supports a strong industry,” she says. “I don’t see those being at odds with one another, because it’s been done very successfully elsewhere.”
