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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.
Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
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Platforms were generally constructed for one person operating one account, rather than trading organisations requiring separate permissions and controls. According to Gonzalez, some teams still share a single login.
“Whether it’s a 10-person or 100-person fund, they log in through the same Google email and share the same login credentials, which makes no sense,” he said.
ParlayX is developing individual logins, delegated permissions and subaccounts for such teams. Other gaps include unified execution across exchanges, prime brokerage and common resolution standards.
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