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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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I concede, CEOs know much more about business than I do. That’s why they are business leaders and I am not, nor will I ever be. So who the hell am I then? I will say confidently, I absolutely know my place in this world. It is as clear to me as the sun. I may not understand much about doing business, but I know what money is, and I know what money is not. I know what happens to unbacked paper currency when governments shut down the world and blast currency from monetary firehoses all over the world until we are all drowning in it. It dies.
Are you listening, Oh you gaming industry execs? If you’re a CEO reading this, or a CFO, and you’re struggling with shut down casinos and mounting debt, I’m talking to you. You have only a few months at most to protect your companies from a hyperinflationary nuclear bomb that is about to go off and destroy everything in its path. The fuse is being lit as I write this. I will now describe the fuse.
About 18 months ago I wrote this weird, esoteric, wacky article. I made the case that once U.S. dollar interest rates went negative, all commodities would warp into backwardation. Meaning, the spot prices for all commodities would become more expensive than their futures price. This is now happening. Almost all commodities are now in persistent backwardation. All grains, sugar, lumber, and cotton; energy including natural gas and both Brent and WTI crude oil; base metals including copper, tin, and iron ore. They are all in backwardation now, and some have been that way for months now. The CRB commodities index is now climbing at its fastest pace ever, doubling since March.
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Carolyn Lidgerwood, an ACMA member, stressed the importance of respecting self-exclusion decisions, stating “providers must respect that decision” and “must have robust systems in place”.
These remarks align with a broader regulatory focus on harm-minimisation within online gambling, where adherence to self-exclusion protocols is under closer scrutiny.
“These were serious breaches by Dabble. Wagering providers must have robust systems in place to protect people who have chosen to self-exclude,” Lidgerwood added.
